Sunday, June 20, 2010
Two Climate Change Professors at UCLA
"Nice color combination, don't you think?"
There is an amusing op-ed in today's Orange County Register (which tends to print a lot of amusing stuff). Two UCLA professors are insisting that Climate Change is real, and California is in the forefront of combating it. The article is written by Holger Brix, adjunct asst. professor and researcher with UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Michael D Intriligator, professor of economics, political science and public policy at UCLA.
I tried without success to find and download the article on the Register's online site or anywhere else, but I do have a hard copy in front of me. Therefore, I will try to summarize what they say.
First point: "The fact is that the overwhelming majority of the most respected scientists-including those in the highest levels of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Academy of Engineering-agree: man-made greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to climate change."
My comment: And who are the most respected scientists? Are they Phil Jones, the disgraced head of the Climate Research Unit at E Anglia University? Are they that clown, Rajendra Pachauri, who, along with that other clown, Al Gore, accepted a Nobel prize for a now-discredited UN study?
As for those institutions you name, are you saying that everybody in those institutions is in agreement-or does each institute in question have an official opinion and that's that?
The National Academy of the Sciences. Isn't that the outfit now run by an empty-suit named Ralph Cicerone, who used to be the Chancellor at UC-Irvine and who did little or nothing about complaints of anti-Semitism as they were arising on that campus?
Sure is.
Therefore, I don't much care what the National Academy of Science says.
No matter to Brix and Intriligator. They then quote a study by the NAS which says "the Earth's average surface temperature rose 1.4 degrees over the past 100 years-with most of the warming occurring in the past three decades. Therefore, according to the NAS, a national policy framework is needed in order to reduce the country's overall greenhouse gas emissions".
Look, I'm just a rube when it comes to science, but I will assume for the sake of the NAS that they established a connection between the rise in average temperature and the need to reduce our emissions-in other words, that it is man-made. They did, didn't they?
But wait a minute! Isn't it true that the hottest decade on record in the last hundred years was the 1930s, with three years in that decade being among the three hottest years?
"Uhhh......yeaaaah."
But then our two professors hand us the biggest laffer of all when they give us "the most up-to-date numbers" courtesy of the California Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Action Team, who "found" that by 2050, the sea level rise could measure up to 18 inches higher than in 2000, and by 2100, up to 55 inches higher..."
Moreover, "by 2099, $100 billion worth of property in coastal areas will be vulnerable to inundation... and "estimated that by 2050, we will lose at least a quarter of the Sierra snowpack, the source of up to 65% of our water supply, due to warming temperatures."
Hey, far be it from me to argue these points though I have no idea how they can figure what the dollar will be worth in 2099. (I wonder what the Euro will be worth in 2099, or if there will be a Europe.... (I am digressing again.)
What I do want to point out for those who are not fortunate to live in our progressive state (which is getting progressively worse)is that this CEPA bureaucracy is an out of control Environmental monster that is been in the headlines recently. One of their entities, the California Air Resources Board, under one Mary Nichols, an environmental activist, was involved in a scandal last year over a study and report by a guy named Hien Tran. Mr Tran's study came up with statistics showing that tens of thousands of deaths were occurring as a result of diesel fuel particulate matter. This study led the board to pass draconian legislation that imposed all kinds of costly adjustments that had to be made to diesel engines by individuals and companies using diesel-propelled vehicles. Then, it was discovered that this guy Tran had a false educational resume. What he had was a diploma issued by some diploma mill in England, which was operated by some character on the lam from the US on sex charges. Not only that, but when Ms Nichols learned of the false Tran resume, she hid that information from the board until after they voted on and passed the regulations.
http://garyfouse.blogspot.com/2010/03/korruption-in-kalifornia.html
http://garyfouse.blogspot.com/2010/01/california-air-resources-board-expert.html
http://garyfouse.blogspot.com/2010/01/california-air-resources-board-scandal.html
So I don't much care what that agency has to say about greenhouse gases or global warming.
Now, many in California are trying to pass a measure that would suspend the latest government scam, Assembly Bill 32, which is also referred to as the California Global Warming Solution ACT. California, led by the CEPA/CAT, is trying to lead the nation, no the world, in passing emission regulations that would make the UN blush. The proposed voter measure would suspend the AB 32 legislation until unemployment dipped below 5.5%-because this is a real job-killer folks that will do nothing but drive people, their companies and their jobs out of California-which is already happening. Unemployment in California is now at 13.7%-four points above the national average. The measure to limit AB 32 is on the November ballot, and Governor Katzenjammer has promised to fight it.
Our governor
Not to worry, say our two distinguished professors.
"On the contrary, developing clean, safe, alternative energy and energy efficiency technologies in California addresses the climate change challenge while also sparking new investment and jobs. In California, between 1995-2008, green jobs grew 36% while total jobs in the state grew 13%."
"Ah wunnerful, ah wunnerful ah"
You know where that job growth came from, folks? State government jobs, that's where. So, if those numbers are correct, we had a rise in green jobs (whatever they are) and government jobs. Red jobs, blue jobs, yellow jobs, brown jobs, white jobs...that's another matter. Bottom line? California has 13.7% unemployment, but if you work for the state, your union is keeping you safe, sound and fat-at the expense of the tax-payers.
And what are these Green Jobs? I guess if you are a worker who makes solar panels or wind turbines, you qualify. Beyond that, it gets pretty murky. Are you a company that "promotes green jobs and renewable energy"-whatever you actually do? Gee, I wonder if such companies qualify for government grants because they "promote green energy"? One company I found is involved in setting up network lists of other people and companies that are "Green". Do they get government grants? Oh well, just a silly question.
Meanwhile California is bankrupt because the Democrat and union controlled state government just keeps spending and spending on all kinds of social welfare programs and luxuries for their state employees, higher salaries, health care and retirements. And for decades, which voting block was predominantly responsible for allowing and encouraging them to do this? Our liberal university communities, that's who. Now that the well is dry, they are the first ones crying.
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38 comments:
The evidence that human-produced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide are causing significant changes in weather patterns, and that this is having harmful effects on people's lives, with much worse likely to follow, is overwhelming. The details, and exact parameters, are of course almost impossible to identify perfectly, because global climate and weather are a very complex system with an almost infinite number of variables. That's not a good excuse to do nothing at all.
By the way, how do you feel about your fellow conservatives carving out a niche for themselves as "apologists for British Petroleum"? I've never had so much hope that Michelle Bachman is going down this year. People in Minnesota are pretty intelligent most of the time.
Siarlys,
I am no defender of BP, but a lot of people are open to criticism here. The defense of BP I have heard from the right concerns the Obama admin. acting outside the law to demand this and that from them. Had BP refused that exchrow account, Im not sure how Obama could have countered. But I take no sides in that issue.
Here's a good place to start. I see that they have taken on a lot of the bogus arguments that you've made from time to time.
As for the 1930s thing, it's based on data that's not referring to the average global temperature; rather, it's a cherry-picking of a few extreme yet individual events. Stop pulling out the "Wasn't it hotter in the 1930s?" argument, because you're embarrassing yourself.
Average. Global. Temperatures. Say it with me, nice and slow. That's what this is about.
Lance,
The science is NOT settled. Repeat after me.
Well Gary, it is probably true that Obama could not have REQUIRED BP to cough up a nice round $20 billion in advance, or to forego dividends. It is also true that people all over the country were DEMANDING that the president get SOMETHING done, so he took a bold step to see that the people harmed were, to some significant extent, made whole.
Morally and ethically, its what anyone should do who negligently causes damage to their neighbor -- like, if you were text messaging while driving, went through a red light, totalled some innocent party's car, and put them in the hospital. You, or your insurance company, are liable to compensate them.
True, this reduces the need for endless litigation, which BP could, legally, have insisted on. They probably did it precisely because they saw that this was good PR for them, in the long run, because their liability would be quite high, in the end, and because even a big corporation can sometimes see the benefit in avoiding expensive litigation.
The best precedent I can think of is when John F. Kennedy jawboned the steel companies into rolling back a price increase. Did he have constitutional authority to ORDER them to do that? No. But he had, not only a bully pulpit, but the ability to transfer federal contracts to companies that had not raised their prices. It was a sound move, it worked, it didn't break the constitution.
As to your specious claim that the science is not settled, the details are not, but the broad outlines are, and they are quite dangerous enough. You can repeat a contrary mantra all you want, or stand on your head and hold your breath until you turn blue if you don't like it. I recommend anyone sincerely open to data and analysis go to Google Books and look up Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat. Among the points well made are, IPCC, being a committee, is highly conservative, and generally underestimates the nasty surprises likely to hit us -- as the oil spill did, I might add. I know, you can cite a book with a snazzy title that denies the entire concept of global warming, but I've looked at a few of those books: they are long on spin, short on facts, full of wishful thinking.
This would indicate otherwise.
You're reminding me more of a creationist or an anti-vaxxer when it comes to this issue. No amount of evidence will ever sway you.
Siarlys,
My firm conviction is that the question is not settled and until it is, we should not turn the world upside down and surrender our own wealth and craetivity (what's left) to someone like the UN and the third world (We give them plenty already in foreign aid). This is especially true in light of scandals like E Anglia Univ and IPPC or whatever it is. Can you not see the hidden agenda behind so much of this?
This is especially true in light of scandals like E Anglia Univ and IPPC or whatever it is.
You mean these scandals, that if you actually take a close look at them, turn out to be much ado about nothing?
Can you not see the hidden agenda behind so much of this?
I'm guessing you didn't check out my link. Why would Shell, BP, and various CEOs of large corporations make statements showing support of the notion behind man-made global warming? Your little conspiracy theory makes no sense.
Don't you think that there might be an agenda on the part of the deniers? Does the notion of that even register with you?
But here's the thing: agendas don't matter. With issues like this, only the facts matter - and the facts are not on your side.
Lance,
The only agenda of the deniers I hear about is the OIL Companies, but you say they support the global warming theory! I am confused.
Do you think YOU know the facts?
And pls don't bring back that peer review stuff. We've dealth with that.
First, get this straight! Climate change has been occuring in the paste 4 BILLION years. Second, The most significant CO2 build-up in on earth was 100 MILLION years ago, which allowed a huge growth in vegetation, forging the era of the dinosaurs. The dinosaurs lasted for millions of years under in the high CO2 environment.
The science of CO2 and anthropomorphic global warming has been extremely flawed as recent findings and scams have been uncovered. There is no anthropomorphic global warming, period!
Last, check who funded and who are members of the Chicago Climate Exchange. Obama used funds from the Joyce foundation (Soros) to help create the CCX. Valerie Jarrid is still on the board. Al Gore owns 10% of CCX. Raines, of Fannie Mae fame, owns the patent to the CCX "science" and is a main player with CCX.
Who will profit if the Cap and Tax bill passes? Wake up people.
Squid
Do you think YOU know the facts?
No offense, Gary, but I KNOW that I know them better than you do. You've made posts along the lines of, "Hey, why is it so cold this winter? So much for global warming!" This shows that you aren't even clear on the whole concept to begin with. You can't even correctly articulate what the whole theory is even about. Maybe you can, but I have yet to see you do it anyway. Everything you write convinces me that your only exposure to the issue is through right-wing propaganda talking points. Shoot - you even admitted to me once that you haven't even really read anything about the issue! And yet you think it's perfectly legitimate to STILL have such a strong opinion about it. Are you really not seeing the disconnect there?
And pls don't bring back that peer review stuff. We've dealth with that.
Well, if I lost a debate as badly as you did, I wouldn't want to bring up the subject again either. I'm still not convinced that you even understand that whole concept, even though you've had it explained to you ad nauseum.
I'd really would pay good money to see you debate a climatologist. I'm a complete layman on this issue, yet I trounce you again and again on this issue. I can't imagine how completely and thoroughly all of your arguments would be destroyed. Shoot, I double dog dare ya to cross post this stuff on Alexandria!
I mean, who exactly is on your side? Rush Limbaugh? Sarah Palin? Those doofuses on Fox and Friends? The big list of scientists where anybody with a BS in science could have added their name, even if their area of expertise is completely outside the realm of climatology? (They even included a dentist! Hey, why not auto mechanics? What they do is a form of science!)
Who's on my side? Hmmm...
NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
State of the Canadian Cryosphere (SOCC)
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
The Royal Society of the UK (RS)
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
American Meteorological Society (AMS)
American Institute of Physics (AIP)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
American Meteorological Society (AMS)
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS)
Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil)
Royal Society of Canada
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Academie des Sciences (France)
Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany)
Indian National Science Academy
Accademia dei Lincei (Italy)
Science Council of Japan
Russian Academy of Sciences
Royal Society (United Kingdom)
National Academy of Sciences (United States of America)
Yeah, but what the hell do they know? Who cares about things like credentials and expertise? All you need is an opinion!
Lance,
If you think you have trounced me again and again on this issue, then you should make a blanket statement that;
global warming is real
It is caused by man
the science is settled
you support the IPCC/E Anglia studies
You believe what Al Gore says
If all those things are true, proven and settled, then you have trounced me.
Squid,
Thank you. And if Lance and other readers don't know who George Soros is and his agenda, then they need to find out-real quick.
PS to Lance,
Who in the hell is Grist?
As for the NAS, I addressed them on my post in reference to Cicerone.
But what you should pay attention to Lance, is what I wrote on the CEPA and the CARB. Don't take my word for it. Do the research on Mary Nichols and Hien Tran. It is scary!
Squid, all of your lame points are debunked in the original article that I linked. Nice try. But hey, keep using them while you put your fingers in your ears and hum really loudly. After all, Gary loves the old canard about the 1930s. Who cares if it's a lousy argument?
If all those things are true, proven and settled, then you have trounced me.
With the exception of the last two things you mentioned, they are. Therefore, I win. I accept your apology.
And again - I double dog dare you to post this stuff to Alexandria. Nobody can resist a double dog dare. What's the matter? Chicken? Bwak! Bwak!
Oh, and...
Who in the hell is Grist?
I don't know. I didn't post anything about a Grist. Do you mean the busted NASA link? How about this? But maybe you believe that the moon landing was faked, too.
As for the NAS, I addressed them on my post in reference to Cicerone.
Oh, good job, Gary. I tell you what, even though I'm not going to bother rereading that particular post, I'll let you have that one. I'll even go you one further and grant that they're a bunch of Marxists from another planet, and their goal is to have us human beings be enslaved by a race of damned, dirty apes.
You still have over twenty other scientific organizations to debunk. Good luck with that. (And those are just the ones I listed.)
Hey lance, I think you put too many hops in that beer you brew.
So thanks for committing yourself to the science is settled crowd. But there are still those Scientists who disagree.
NASA? Even they concede "a minority" disagree. Must have been those guys that bungled the space shuttle disasters.
So thanks for committing yourself to the science is settled crowd.
You mean the overwhelming majority of scientists who are experts in this field? You're welcome.
Honestly, I have you to thank. I wouldn't have spent so much time researching this stuff if it weren't for all of your posts about it. I looked into all of your supposed "debunkings" and found them to be wanting.
But there are still those Scientists who disagree.
Who are these scientists? And how many of them are climatologists?
NASA? Even they concede "a minority" disagree. Must have been those guys that bungled the space shuttle disasters.
Heh. Do you realize that this statement sounds more like something in favor of my argument than yours? Are you finally coming around?
"But there are still those Scientists who disagree."
"Who are these scientists? And how many of them are climatologists?"
Lance, I was quoting your source, NASA.
Final question to you:
Do you know the truth?
Do you know the truth?
I know this much: Just as Siarlys says, not all of the details are settled. For instance, many of the claims that types like Al Gore make are a bit on the premature side and depend on a lot of possibly exaggerated speculation.
One thing that's an absolute, indisputable fact is that average global temperatures are on the rise. Also, all the evidence indicates that we are having an impact on this. As to how great a degree of that impact, there is some room for debate.
Essentially, it boils down to this. I have experts in this particular field on my side. You have pundits and people who may be scientists, but are not experts. You may have a small minority of experts who are on your side, but the same can be said for Holocaust deniers. (Oh, and you also have a commentator who goes by the handle "Squid".) THAT is the real truth right there, no matter how much you hem and haw about it.
In defense of BP.... As I understand it, the problem is that the Administration wants them to be responsible for collateral damages. The question is where does it end? BP has responded that it depends on the laws in the state that brings the claim.
For example, a restaurant in Boston says it lost business because they can't serve Louisiana prawns anymore and puts in a claim. BP says they would pay the claim (!) if the law in Mass. provides that kind of liability coverage. If the same claim were brought in say, Kansas City, and Mo. law doesn't make the same provision... then the Boston guy gets paid and the Kansas one doesn't. Any and all collateral damage claims could cost $22 trillion, not $22 billion.
I know the Dems are hostile to businesses and support the most extensive penalties possible. Nevertheless, fair is fair, and constitutional is constitutional and there is such a thing as unintended consequences that they never seem to think of.
I think the Republicans say it is not fair to rape the company just because you have them down and defenseless. They are against all rapes, even to oil companies.
Gary, when we can't even agree on the facts, effective argument would require that we each make a list of three books, then read each other's lists, then make notes on why the books are or are not convincing. Otherwise, this will quickly reduce itself to "Is not, is so, is not, is so" ad infinitum.
The baseline is, your statement that "The science is not settled" is not commonly accepted, and the consensus that does exist in most relevant scientific disciplines, had not swayed a significant number of people, like you.
As to the dinosaurs, I'm not a dinosaur, and I don't want to live in a swamp, breathing hot humid air. I'm not even sure I would survive it -- summer in Washington D.C. is hard enough, which is why I don't live there. The coal and oil we are burning now took a lot of that CO2 out of the atmosphere, lowering the temperature to something more conducive to human civilization, and we're putting it all back. Bad move.
The earth's surface was molten some four billion years ago, but that doesn't mean it would be OK to have it be molten again now.
Here's what God thinks about all this:
http://archives.wittenburgdoor.com/archives/noahconference.html
(The editors fudged the first paragraph. The conference actually took place at the Holy Hill Historic Shrine in Wisconsin).
Siarlys and Lance,
I suggest you go to the the OC Register letters to the editor section for today. Theree are a couple of resp[onses to the 2 professors. Are they true? I don't know, but Ill beyt you guys dont either.
Regarding the bit about how more carbon gets into the air through natural processes:
http://www.grist.org/article/natural-emissions-dwarf-human-emissions/
The other one doesn't seem to know the difference between weather and climate.
What we have here, Lance is a case of dueling experts. That's why I don't know what the truth is but aspparently you do.
Ummm...no. You have some letter to the editor. Are you seriously trying to equate that with 97% of climatologists?
You are living in a serious subjective reality here.
97% Where did you get that number from the UN?
The University of Illinois conducted a study.
Waiting for your groundless dismissal of the study in 3...2...1...
So the Univ of Illinois conducted a survey. Is that your smoking gun.
Lance, let me save you a lot of work so you can get back to brewing your beer. You are spending too much time reseraching global warming. Me, I am not all that interested until the govt or the UN starts taking all my goodies away in the name of saving the planet. I am a sceptic. I admit I don't know the final answer (the truth). Are you saying that you do know the truth? I think that can conclude the "discussion".
Did you even read the article? Gary, the warming of the Earth is my smoking gun.
Here's the thing - you are not a skeptic. Skeptics change their minds with evidence. You are given mountains of evidence, yet you ignore it because it doesn't fit your pre-determined narrative. All you have are vague statements about supposed scientists who disagree, yet you are unable to name them or their areas of expertise.
Can't you ever just admit when you've lost an argument?
Wait a second...you're criticizing me for spending "too much time" researching global warming? For the love of Thor - YOU'RE the one who writes all these blog posts on the issue! Don't you think that YOU should do some research before you make the bold statements that you do?
Seriously - just answer that.
Lance,
You never answered my question; are you SURE about global warming or do you believe in GW?
My main inspiration in taking on those two turkeys was that they quoted the Calif Enviro Protection Agency. That demanded a response.
Have we beaten this issue to death enough?
On a level of certainty, I'd say that I'd rank global warming slightly below my certainty of gravity and slightly above my certainty that a god doesn't actually exist.
The fact still remains that you don't understand the issue, and you have basically admitted that you have no desire to understand it. Yet you will still have opinions about it.
Do you really not see how silly that is?
Not really.
Call me crazy, but I always thought that it was better to base one's opinions on facts.
I have a new, more appropriate image that you can start adding to your posts about global warming.
Lance,
Fact or opinion?
Cleveland is a city
Cleveland is the greatest city in the world.
The weather in Cleveland is warm in July.
Global warming is real and is caused by man.
All facts. Wow. That was easy!
I'd tell you to research the issue to find out why I'd conclude this, but I know how you feel about actually learning the facts of an issue.
All of the discussion which has taken place since my last comment certainly makes my case. Thank you.
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