This article first appeared in New English Review.
I have held off on writing about the killing of Iran's Qassem Soleimani and the resulting tension of the past few days in order to see where the dust will settle. It appears that it will take some time before it all plays out. I am no geo-political expert, but here is what I think at the moment.
As an American who is still smarting over the hostage crisis and Iran's outrageous conduct ever since, I applauded the killing of this man. The world is a better place without him around. If it is true that he was organizing some sort of operation or attack against American troops or civilians, then I consider it completely justified. The question is whether it was wise since the irrational leaders of Iran are sure to respond.
That is a question that will be answered by future events. I concede there is a great chance of this escalating into a full blown war with Iran. Just what we don't need, another Middle East war, another country we would have to occupy, hold, and rebuild. Most of all, more American soldiers dying in an effort to bring stability and peace to this forsaken region.
The scenario is easy to predict: The Iranians carry out a terrorist attack in which Americans are killed, and brag about it. Trump, who is no Jimmie Carter and no Barack Obama, will respond by bombing some 52 sites in Iran, and here we go.
But I will say one thing: Sooner or later, the US-and the world- are going to have to deal with this regime. The Cold War against the Soviet Union never broke out into a shooting war because the Soviets, bad-intentioned as they were, were not crazy. They thought logically. The leaders of Iran are not like that. They are thinking about that 12th Imam, whoever the hell he is.
It would be nice to think that the Iranians will conclude that Trump is as crazy as they are and decide to behave themselves for awhile. I doubt it. I also have no hope that the Iranian people can rise up and bring this regime down. What I suspect is that we need to prepare ourselves. I would hope that our erstwhile allies in NATO will stand with us. Will they? How will their own populations react? I can only see riots in the streets with the leftists and the Muslim communities running amok.
The Iraqi Parliament has just voted for the US military to leave Iraq. Again, I am a dummy when it comes to geo-politics, but maybe we should respect their wishes and get the hell out-along with our money. It may be the perfect out for Trump and for our nation. Personally, I am burned out when it comes to the Middle East. The only country I care about in that region is Israel and its safety. But as long as that regime remains in power in Iran, the world is at risk.
We can all pray for peace, but we need to be ready to pray for the safety and success of our troops. I have no doubt they would prevail in a war against Iran, but it's going to be quite messy.
This is not a nice world we are leaving for our children and grandchildren.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
US assassinates Solomon-I, in Iraq, in a Quasi-Shia State, in the wee hours of the morning.
Y would a Iranian Gen - who is anti-Israel and America, fly from a Commercial/Military Airport in Iraq - when the US embassy was firebombed just a few days ago ? He would have known that all his e-signatures would be tracked by the Americans,second by second,and there would be no dearth of spies at the hangar,ATC,Airport who would ply the Americans with precise coordinates of the General's flight patterns ?
Surely after the US embassy bombing the Good General would have been told by his team to exit Iraq ? Could a general be so careless or foolish - that he would think that he could exit from a designated airport,after the US embassy escapade - and with another designated terrorist (designed by USA) - with makes it a double prime target - and with no collateral baggage ? In ISIS days - he was fighting with the Americans - and those days are over.
Persian Shia'ism is not a suicide cult - it appears to be one - but it is not.So the general was misled into complacency and entrapped by some , in the Iraqi state, to take that flight - and the US embassy firebombing might also have been a false flag operation as the US troops shot no one - id.est., no firebomber was killed.But the sons of Xerxes and Cyrus cannot be so naive and foolish.The General would not have boarded that plane unless he was secured by the Russians and Tehran.
CNN portrays the killing as a "Trump rash reaction" - but it is not.Ultimately,the USA will go to war with Iran - as the Americans do not trust the Persian Shias - on the N-Bomb,and the Persians do not trust the Jews or the Nassara. Soleimani was just the catalyst to push the Persians into the N- Suspension, and go full N-throttle - which is what the Persians have done - and which is what the Americans wanted.
Iraqi govtt will kick out the US troops and the US troops will not leave - as that is what the Americans (and Kurds,Nassara,Sunnis) really want.To be precise, the Kurds,Suniis do not want the Yankii to leave - but that they be asked to leave - so that their mortal fears of living under Persian Shias is brought to the fore - for a partition of the Iraqi state
What the Americans want is to trifurcate Iraq - which will happen inevitably post Soleimani - and which is what the Persians also seek,although the Persians would like to Shia-ise the whole of Iraq.Persian security interests are preserved by destabilising and burning Iraq to create a "sea of fire" between them and the US/Israel and satellite Hezbollahs all over the Gulf,especially encircling the Saudis (The Soleimani Doctrine).But now,they will be happy with a trifurcation
The Americans chose a Persian Shia to kill ,when the whole Sunni world hates Persia and the Persia Shian, and killed him in a Quasi Shia State - and so there is no empathy or support for the Persians - even after the assassination - not even from Russia and PRC.
Obviously,the Russians,PRC,EU would have known - and they did not tip off the Persians and the Americans shot off 4 Hell Fire's - and THERE WAS NO COLLATERAL PRESENCE AT THE AIRPORT AT THAT TIME. A marked man would travel in the presence of ample collateral baggage - like the Hamas and Hezb, do in Gaza - to provoke Collateral damage,and then the Christian empathy,by Amanpour on CNN
The Persians have launched a muffled attack at a site which it knows, hosts no Americans, using missiles which have the capacity to hit US barracks,and knowing that the site hosts Iraqis - where the Iranians had ample intel and time to affix missile coordinates for the terminal descent - and they did not.The Persians used BM with intent,SO THAT THE AMERICANS could track their launch and loading and set up - AND THE AMERICANS did NOT TAKE OUT THE LAUNCHERS AND SILOS - before take off.dindooohindoo
Y did the Russians and Tehran not protect Soleimani ? They allowed him to be killed .
Your observations are interesting. I am not qualified to judge them since you have devoted more time to the intricacies of the Iranian-Arab dynamic than I have. It is my judgment that the "attack" by Iran against the US bases is a face-saving gesture and Trump is accepting it as such. If that is the case and war is averted, Trump comes out looking great. I agree that eventually, a conflict between the US and Iran is inevitable. It doesn't need to involve a full scale invasion of Iran; we can do enough damage from the air.
Post a Comment