Having been a Cub fan since 1963 (50 Years) and having gone through the death of Ken Hubbs, the Lou Brock trade, 1969, 1984, and 2003, it is not easy for this 68-year-old to watch them go through a planned rebuilding designed to bring success within 5 years since I may not be around to see it. Yet, I support the philosophy of Theo Epstein and realize it has to be. The other night, while watching a Cubs-Cardinals broadcast, one of the announcers quoted some expert as saying the Cubs will be the best team in baseball in 5 years.
You mean like they were in 1969 or actually win it all?
Let's take a look at where we are now, both at the major league and minor league levels.
The team on the field year this year is obviously weak offensively. The two foundations of the team, Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo, are both mired in slumps. Rizzo is still on track to have pretty good numbers this year if he can get his batting average out of the .240s. Right now, both look like they are sleep walking with Castro resembling a blindfolded pinata player at the plate while having another erratic year in the field (11 errors and counting). Like most observers, I question his focus. At second base, we are strong defensively with errorless Gold Glove winner Darwin Barney. All he has to do is keep his average above .250 and he is worth his weight in gold. He is at .226 as of today, but he is a better hitter than that. Plus he is young.
Right now, we have nothing at 3rd base. Ian Stewart is at Iowa and finsihed as a Cub since his recent outburst against Cub management. Josh Vitters, a former 1st round pick, doesn't appear to have panned out. That leaves Luis Valbuena who can field the position, but hits like a middle infielder. Cody Ransom may hit 15-20 home runs, but that's about it.
The outfield is still a work in progress as we await the final year of 37-year-old Alfonso Soriano's contract (2014). Here is a player with almost zero fundamentals. Center field is also in a holding pattern with David DeJesus, a pro's pro, who does everything reasonably well, but will never rise to star status (currently on DL). In right field, we have Nate Schierholtz, who is putting up decent numbers and may be our top offensive producer if Rizzo doesn't get out of his rut. Schierholtz is platooning with Scott Hairston, another temporary hole-filler. The future of the Cub outfield is clearly in the minors right now.
At catcher, we have a young Wellington Castillo with Doner Navarro at backup. Castillo is hitting fairly well and may continue to be the catcher in the coming years.
Right now, the strength of this year's team is unquestionably the starting pitching staff with Jeff Samardziya, Matt Garza, Travis Wood, Scott Feldman all off to solid starts and being victimized by the bullpen-especially that guy Carlos Marmol. Edwin Jackson (3-9) has shown flashes-especially lately, and Kevin Gregg has come back from nowhere to take over the closer role in impressive fashion. It appears that Garza will be traded later this year for more prospects as well as possibly Feldman. James Russell has been solid in the bullpen.
That takes us to the farm system, which Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer are trying to build up from practically nothing in the way of prospects. No doubt there has been a dramatic improvement, but more additions are needed. Currently, the top prospects are Javier Baez, a 1st-round pick shortstop, who shined in spring training with the Cubs before being sent down (as planned all along), Jorge Soler out of Cuba (outfield), Alberto Almora (outfield-2012 1st round choice), and possibly Brett Jackson, another 1st round outfielder pick, who showed flashes with the big club last year, but who must cut way down on his strikeouts. If Baez's best position is shortstop, then the Cubs must find another position for Castro to play-if not trade him down the road. Just this month, Baez hit 4 homers in a class A game.
There are a few others, including those the Cubs picked up in trades last year like Christian Villanueva, a 3rd baseman obtained from Texas in the Ryan Dempster trade and pitcher Arodys Vizcaino in the Paul Maholm trade with Atlanta (recovering from elbow surgery at the time). There is also Steve Clevenger, a catcher-third baseman-first baseman, who can swing the bat but would have trouble finding a permanent position to play. This year's top draft choice was third baseman Kris Bryant, a home run hitter from the University of San Diego, who may eventually play the corner outfield or first base (He is 6' 5".) After that selection, the Cubs went heavy for pitchers, which is a need in their minor league system.
So the strategy is clear (though there seems to be no strategy for ridding themselves of Soriano and Marmol): Build up the farm system and go for youth. It makes sense. Hopefully, the Cubs can convince some contender to take Soriano off their hands this year and get some more prospects. De Jesus would be a good trade possibility, but he is on the DL. I question if they should trade Feldman since he is still only 30. Their quality pitching staff is not exactly old, so hopefully, they won't dismantle it. With Baez looming on the horizon, but still a couple of years away, the idea of trading Castro should not be ruled out.
I just hope I am around the see it all happen. Or will it just turn out to be another couple of heart-breaking near-misses?
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6 comments:
Now you know Gary that if the Cubs get any where near a pennant they will crumble. It is the Goat Curse.
But if they make the pennant, they will choke in the World Series. It is the Goat Curse.
But if they win the World Series all Human life on Earth will end. It is the Goat Curse. That is why the Earth didn't end in 2012.
Otherwise they could win.
That's just as reasonable as any other theory.
The unknown real text of the curse was "The Cubs will win a World Series after a black man is twice elected President of the United States." Here's hoping Gary will live to see it happen. I'd guess 2016.
After that, another corollary kicks in:
"If a female graduate of Wheaton College gets into the White House, the Cubs can kiss the pennant good-bye for another 100 years."
If you're talking about H Clinton, we can kiss the US good-bye/.
Your comments about this player or that being at a certain crappy level but could be a lot better reminds me of the section in Malcom Gladwell's book about how chess masters are the same as stupid criminals.
The chess masters play tournaments several times a month and are given a number ranking, like a golf handicap.
They all know it like their own names and they know what their opponent's number is as well. But when asked what they think their number SHOULD be it is always about a hundred points higher.
The stupid criminal is like the high school vandal who spray paints his initials on the lockers and figures no one will figure out who did it or the guy who puts lemon juice all over his face so the cameras won't see who it is robbing the bank.
Both types know what they are but they think they are a lot smarter than anyone gives them credit for. The Cubbies may also have some wishful thinking among their long suffering fans.
Gary, its a pleasure to communicate with a man who can recognize my subtle references. I still remember voting for Barack Obama in large part because I did not want Hillary Clinton to be my alternative to John McCain, or Mittens, or whoever. (I suspect one thing Republicans have never forgiven him for is, they were looking forward to clobbering Hillary, and instead they lost to Obama). I would seriously consider voting for Christie over Hillary. Otherwise, it may be time to vote for a third party.
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