What Will Happen in Pakistan?

With Benazir Bhutto already interred, the situation in Pakistan is chaotic with no let up in sight. The cities are wracked by violent protests, the exact cause of her death is not clear (was she shot, killed by shrapnel or when her head hit a sun roof lever?) Also not entirely established is who killed her? Was it Al Qaeda or the Taliban, which certainly had every motive to see her dead- or Musharraf and his allies in the government? Could it have been a conspiracy between elements of both? At this point, the government is blaming Al Qaeda, quoting as proof an intercepted telephone call between 2 known operatives congratulating each other on the assassination. It seems however, that the Pakistani street is having none of it-preferring to lay the blame on Musharraf-and, don't forget his supporters-the US.

So while the fires burn in Pakistani cities and the future of the upcoming election stands in doubt, Bhutto's party, the Pakistan People's Party-PPP, has elevated Bhutto's son, Bilawal Zardari and husband, Asif ali Zardari, to the head of the party. Since the son is a 19 year old student from Oxford and the husband has a reputation for corruption and being a playboy, it is hard to see how they will make a meaningful contribution to their country.

As for Benazir herself, her return to Pakistan and death will certainly cement her legacy as a courageous martyr. Once the first attempt occurred on the day of her return, it was inevitable that she was facing death. Would she have made a difference in Pakistan? We will never know, but many knowledable observers are doubtful. She was already twice prime minister in Pakistan. Her rule ended in charges of corruption. It was hoped that if elected, she would go after the terrorist elements in Waziristan, which she indicated she would do. Now we will never know.

The larger question is what will happen in Pakistan. Will Musharraf (if he survives himself) decide that it is time to go all out against the bad guys? Will he have the full support he needs from his military? Will the Pakistani people turn against Al Qaeda and the Taliban if they realize that they were the true perpetrators of this awful crime? Ultimately, who will seize power in this dangerous country that possesses nuclear weapons? What will India do if Pakistan falls? Who knows the answers to any of these questions? After all, this is Pakistan.