France: An Interesting Survey on the Presidential Elections

Hat tip Francois Desouche

The French blog, Francois Desouche has cross-posted an interesting survey conducted by Ifop (Institut français d'opinion publique) for the French site Marianne. It shows that certain segments of the French population would consider leaving France if populist leader Marine Le Pen is elected president in the upcoming elections.  This includes Muslims, Jews, and voters for the far-left politician, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. As the survey itself notes, it is a small sample size, so the results should be viewed with caution. Nevertheless, the results are interesting.

The below FDesouche posting and Ifop chart are translated by Fousesquawk.

If Marine Le Pen is elected, 46% of Muslims and 43% of Melenchon voters would consider leaving France (Ifop) *

* Institut français d'opinion publique 

According to an Ifop survey for Marianne, published October 14, 2026, 46% of people of the Muslim faith surveyed would consider leaving France to settle in another country if Marine Le Pen is elected president of the Republic. This proportion reaches 43% among Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters and 40% of Generation Z voters. 

Among the general population queried, 21% would consider leaving under this hypothesis. Among Muslims surveyed, 20% responded that they would "certainly" leave the country. More than 8 out of ten fear an increase in attacks and discrimination against them in the event of a victory by Marine Le Pen.

Marianne also reveals that 44% of respondents of the Jewish faith would consider leaving France, while noting that the (small sample size) means the results should be interpreted with caution.

41% say they would refuse to respect laws (they) consider "unjust" 

The investigation also measures the reactions to eventual Le Pen power. 41% of those surveyed express themselves prepared to refuse to respect laws that they judge to be "unjust". This response applies to three out of four Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters and 45% of public workers queried. In addition, 38% of workers said they would be prepared to participate in a general strike.

Chart

Imagine if Marine Le Pen was elected President of the Republic. In this context, could you...

Cease wearing religious signs on the street:

Yes                                                                Among Muslims

30%                                                                      26%

Hide your religious affiliation in everyday life

Yes                                                                Among Muslims

25%                                                                       27%

Refuse to respect laws you judge to be unjust

Yes                      Among public workers               Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters

41%                              45%                                                         75%

Participate in a general strike upon a call from the unions

Yes                    Among public workers                   Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters

38%                            43%                                                         77%

Leave France to settle in another country

Yes                      Muslims                                          Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters         

21%                         46%                                                             43%

Methodology: The investigation was carried out by a self-administered online questionnaire from 25- 30 September 2026 with about 9,689 people aged 18 and above, constituting a representative sample of the French population. These results describe the stated intentions given a hypothetical scenario and not actual departures.

Source: Marianne, Hadrien Mathoux, October 14, 2026

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