Chicago Cubs: What is Coming in 2015?

Hat tip John Speedie for audio

OK. My Cubbies finished last again the National League Central Division. Next year will be year 107 since they won the World Series and year 70 since they played in the Series. Still we loyal fans suffer along through the years, the decades, and the centuries convinced that one day it is going to happen only to be teased by the occasional contender and blown pennants spaced between the years of losing. This year, many of us put the pain aside and spent as much time following the Cubs farm system as much as the "big club".

Those of you who don't care about the Cubs probably don't know that under Theo Epstein, they have built up the farm system from what was considered poor to what is now considered arguably the best in terms of blue chip prospects. Three-possibly four - of those prospects made it to the majors this year with varying degrees of success. There are at least 4 more expected to show up in Chicago within the next two years.

This year actually produced improvement under new manager Rick Renteria. Instead of losing over 100 games again, they lost 89.

"Ah wunnerful, ah wunnerful, ah."


Next year promises more improvement. Here is how things look in 2015 position by position.

Starting pitching. Jeff Samardziya is gone, but we have two solid starters in Jake Arrieta and rookie Kyle Hendricks. The remainder of the rotation is up for grabs among Travis Wood (who was bad this year), Tsuyoshi Wada (who impressed but will be 33 years old) Jacob Turner, and Felix Doubront. They are stuck with two more years on the contract of Edwin Jackson, who has been terrible the last two years. They will give him a chance to find himself next year, but I don't figure him in the long-term planning. Along with Wood, there isn't much risk next year because they aren't expected-I say expected- to contend. But who knows? The top two starting prospects in the minors are CJ Edwards and Pierce Johnson, who figure to be in Triple A next year. In summary, the hope is that Arrieta and Hendricks continue to pitch like they did in 2014 and one or two of the others steps up and establishes himself as a solid starter. Hendricks impressed everyone who watched him, and Arrieta pitched like an ace. Free agency, which I will discuss separately, could land us someone like Jon Lester, James Shields or Max Scherzer. If that happens, watch out.

Bullpen

The late inning relievers were very good this year with Neil Ramirez, Pedro Strop and closer Hector Rondon. Justin Grimm was good in the second half of the season. Wesley Wright,a  leftie, was pretty good and should be in there some place. Prospect Aroydis Vizcaino figures to be a solid reliever and Armando Rivero, who was in the minors last year will possibly win a spot as well. Carlos Villanueva was on and off this year in both stating and relieving roles.

First Base

Anthony Rizzo. What more can you say? At this position we should be solid for years to come if he stays healthy.

Second Base.

Right now that is Javier Baez, who may be moved to another spot due to the coming glut of talent in the infield. As for Baez, he came up and played the last third of the season. He made a splash in his debut series at Colorado with three homers, hitting nine in all, which would project to about 27 over the course of a full season. However, he struck out 95 times, a prodigious number. It doesn't take a professional hitting coach to see what the problem is. Baez has a hitch in his swing that almost matches a golfer's back swing. He has super power and when he makes solid contact, the ball shoots off his bat like a rocket due to the power as the bat comes through the strike zone. In the minors, Baez's progress has been consistent. He began each new level struggling then figured it out and crushed the opposition. At the major league level he has to cut down on that huge hitch, or those strikeouts will just continue. In short, Baez looked lost at the plate this year in the Bigs, but he has great talent. I hope the Cubs send him somewhere to play winter ball, so he can start working on cutting down that swing. If he doesn't show improvement in Spring Training, he may have to go back to Triple A to work on his swing. He has the potential to be a super star, but may also turn out to be a bust. He has a lot of adjustments to make, but he is only 21.


Javier Baez

Shortstop

Right now that is Starlin Castro, who made dramatic improvement at the plate, and also in the field cutting down drastically on those errors. At one point, he went 38 games without an error. There is talk of trading him, possibly to the Mets for one of their good young pitchers due to the number of infield prospects the Cubs have. I would not rush into that. Castro is still only 24 years old and should continue to improve. Let's wait and see if we really have too many infielders to keep on the team. Of course, there is Addison Russell, the A's top infield prospect, who we got in the Samardziya trade. He played well at Double A and should show up in Chicago around 2016. He is a shortstop and considered defensively the best of Castro, Baez, or any others in the Cubs organization. Look for somebody to change positions.

Third Base

While Luis Valbuena did admirably playing full time (16 homers and hitting about .250), his real value is as a utility player. Mike Olt  will probably have to find a future elsewhere- if he cuts down on those strikeouts.  There is a minor leaguer named Christian Villanueva who is highly regarded, but he is not their top 3rd base prospect.  If you have not heard the name Kris Bryant, you soon will. He was the Cubs first round pick a year ago and crushed minor league pitching all the way to Triple A. He hit a total of 41 homers and can handle third base defensively. He will possibly start next year in Triple A due to the rules about when the free agency clock starts ticking, but expect to see him at Wrigley Field by May. He is the real deal (famous last words).


Kris Bryant


Right Field

Jorge Soler

The Cuban outfielder also stormed his way through the minors (when he wasn't plagued by hamstring injuries) and played the last 25 games or so with the Cubs. He was impressive hitting 5 homers and just missing .300 on the last day. Those numbers are hard to gauge over 25 games, but Soler has all the tools (famous last words).

Jorge Soler

Center Field

As it stands, Arismendy Alcantara will fill that spot. Alcantara is one of those rookies, though not as highly touted as Baez, Soler or Bryant, who impressed in Triple A and was brought up in the second half of the season. Though small, he has surprising power and hit 10 homers. He also hit near .200 and often appeared over matched at the plate. He will need to work on his hitting, but there is good potential there. Actually, his natural position is second base, but he doesn't have much of a future there considering all the talent the Cubs have. He plays a pretty decent center field with good speed. If Baez falters next year, look for Alcantara to play a lot of second base. The eventual hope is that Alberto Almora, who played in Double A this year, will be the center fielder by 2016. He was a number one pick a few years back, is graceful, and has decent power.

Left Field

As things stand now, look for Chris Coughlin to get most of the playing time there or be platooned with Justin Ruggiano. Coughlin played fairly well hitting over .280 while hitting at the top of the order. If he is still with the Cubs in 2016, the hope is he would be in a utility role, where he would be valuable. Junior Lake doesn't appear to have much of a future after a terrible 2014. He did hit about 10 homers early on, but he just isn't handling major league pitching. (He is originally an infielder, so there isn't a lot of hitting potential for an outfielder.) Ryan Sweeney is now a free agent if anybody cares.

Catching

Wellington Castillo showed some progress this year hitting 13 homers, but hitting only .237 with 46 rbis. He is improving defensively and may still be the catcher of the future especially if he could get his batting average over .250 and increase his homer output a bit. Of course, this year's number one draft pick, Kyle Schwarber, is a catcher-outfielder. He tore up low minor pitching this year and looks like a solid hitter. He is one of those blue chip prospects still in the minors and could show up at Wrigley as early as 2016 either at catcher or in left field. Back up John Baker can't hit. We are going to need better depth here. If Schwarber eventually takes over at catcher, Castillo would be an excellent back up, but that won't happen next year. Russell Martin, who had a good year with the Pirates, is a free agent. He is 31 years old.



Kyle Schwarber

Possible free agent signings

There are big decisions to be made here because the Cubs are transitioning between being a team selling players to one in the buying market. When does that line get crossed? Within two years the biggest names in their farm system should be playing with the Cubs, and ideally, they should keep the pipeline filled with good prospects. Their biggest need at this point seems to be adding starting pitching and outfielders. From what I hear, the following year will be the big year for free agents. The one name you keep hearing about the Cubs going after this year is Jon Lester, who had a good year with the Red Sox and A's. He is a free agent. In addition, Max Scherzer and James Shields are out there with certain restrictions. One positive feature is that the Cubs will draft 9th in the next draft. Since they are in the top ten spots based on their record, they can sign a Lester without forfeiting their first round pick.

At some point, we (hopefully) will have to deal with that glut of infielders/prospects and trade one of them for a big bat or big arm. When to do that is the question.

Projections

It is hard to see how the Cubs will do next year. If all the pieces fall into place (Baez, Bryant, and Soler being productive and a big free agent pitcher), the Cubs could improve dramatically and take that next big step. If we concede that some developmental time is needed, 2016 could really be intriguing with the hopes of Schwarber and Almora  joining the team.

I will go out on a limb and say this: By 2017, the Cubs will be in the thick of things. Steve Bartman, wherever you are, get your glove ready.



"I'll be ready too."