This essay is for Cubs fan, of which I am one. If you don't follow the Cubs or baseball that carefully, you may not be able to follow the logic because I won't write a lot of background info. It is written as a long-suffering Cubs fan who has had his heart broken numerous times since 1963. There are a lot of people out there not just in Chicago, but all mover the US who are just like me.
So the question is, how do the Cubs stand right now for 2010 and beyond? I am pessimistic. Here's why, position by position.
The biggest weakness I see on this team right now is a non-productive outfield (offensively). Thank God, we have ridden ourselves of the cancer on the team otherwise known as Milton Bradley. The problem is that we are pretty much stuck with a huge contract for that other cancer Alfonso Soriano, who plays left field (and terribly at that.) Soriano is the most undisciplined player I have ever seen. Yes, he can go on home run tears, but he also goes long stretches where he produces nothing but strikeouts, bonehead plays and missed fly balls. Unless he reverts to the form he showed in Washington, where he hit over 40 homers, he is a negative for this team. If you watch the Cubs day in and day out, you see how he hurts this team.
So now, we have an outfield of Soriano in left Fukudome in right and as yet to be determined in center. Fukudome plays right field well, but in his first two years in the US, he has shown himself to be a .259 hitter with ten homers and 50-60 rbis, not good enough numbers for an outfielder. If the Cubs don't acquire a quality player for center field, Reed Johnson and Sam Fuld will probably platoon. Both are the kind of player fans appreciate, but over the course of a season it is doubtful they can put up numbers that you need from an outfielder. What this all boils down to is that as things stand now, there won't be much offense in the outfield. A team can't win a pennant without that. That means if they want to really contend, they need at least one more solid bat in the outfield (actually two or three in my view).
I like the infield as long as Jeff Baker hits like he did last year after coming over from the Rockies. I like Ryan Theriot though he is better suited to be at 2nd base than shortstop. Of course, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are the cornerstones of the infield, but they are both prone to injuries, and one wonders when Lee will wear down for good.
As for catcher, it all depends on whether Geovany Soto gets back to his rookie year form. If he does, we should be set at that position. If he doesn't, then we have a weakness at that position.
The starting pitching looks ok with Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster. Lilly probably will be on the DL when the season starts, and Zambrano, well Zambrano is still Zambrano. Great one start, mediocre the next. To me, he is the most overrated pitcher in baseball. I'd like to see the Cubs get a solid starter, but they were passive at the winter meetings, still hamstrung by Bradley's contract. It looks like the bullpen is well-stocked. Of course, our new closer, Carlos Marmol has to avoid those streaks he gets in from time to time when he loses his control.
The Cubs go into 2010 only two years removed from having the best record in the National League during the regular season. I think that if the Cardinals lose Matt Holliday to free agency, they can be beaten. Yet even if the Cubs can pull that off and get into the playoffs, they are not in a position to win the playoffs as they are presently constituted. I think one more arm and one more bat might fix that problem. The dilemma that general manager Jim Hendry is in is whether he should trade some of the Cubs up-coming prospects. The present team is not getting any younger, and Hendry is on the hot seat after his disasterous contracts with Soriano and Bradley.
Jim Hendry, General Manager
Since this shapes up as a critical year for the Cubs (and Hendry), I would go with whatever free agent outfielders are available like Jason Bay or Aaron Rowland and give this team another shot at coming back. If 2010 turns out to be a bust, then it will be time to turn to our best minor league prospects and wait a few more years.
"And wait a few more years...."
Love the article. It is funny because we didnt really get a big bat in center and the Cards did resign Holiday. The one thing I think we do have going for us is that all our players are either hot or cold and when they are hot we are as good position for postion as pretty much any team out there. But on the other side when we are bad we fear even the Pirates!!!! Hope you are wrong andt the season turns out great....but I feel you are right and it will be a few more years till I can get excited!
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